It occurred to me that I have a great way to prove the mighty powers of Nostradumbass.

[SB digg, reddit]ICANN has announced their intent to allow the registration of new gTLDs in a repeated auction process, starting for the princely sum of $100,000 for a handful of letters.  In IRC in debate the question came up how many vanity 1st level domains (hereafter vanity 1ld) would be purchased.

[digg-reddit-me]For the purposes of competition – and there’s no money involved, I just said gambling to whore diggs and such – a vanity 1LD is defined as a gTLD which represents the name of a person, company or organization.  This means that .porn is not a vanity 1tld, even though it’ll certainly be owned by a pornographer, because it’s named for its content.  By contrast, .microsoft is a vanity 1LD, as is .billclinton (which probably won’t get bought; I’m just being thorough in definition and Bill has a good sense of humor.)  If a 1LD is assigned on basis of trademark, it’s pretty much in like Flynn.

So.  Where’s the psychicitudeness?

I predict that approximately 950 vanity 1LDs will be purchased in the first auction.  (This has the startling price tag of ninety five million dollars minimum.)

Anyone want to play The Price is Right with me?  Place your bet in comments (preferably as a trackback; this is a new domain and I could use some rank).  Whoever gives the nearest answer to the number that turns out to be correct wins.  (No price is right rules; going over isn’t different than going under.)

Incidentally, if you guys are worried I’ll edit my post after the fact, just check Internet Archive for the day before the auction.  I can’t cheat; I’m being watched by www.bigbroth.er .

Bring it.  950.